Temperatures are breaking records each year, raising serious economic and social concerns. On a broader macroeconomic scale, recent research shows cumulative losses from heat waves between 2013 and 2015 reached between $5 trillion and $29.3 trillion globally.

On the other hand, the combination of rising temperatures and humidity is increasing heat index values, as seen in Southeast Asia this summer. Notably, the heat index, which reflects what the temperature feels like, is often reported in the news. This year, India experienced a shocking heat index of 127°F, while in Myanmar, the heat index reached nearly 118°F—over 21°F higher than the April average.

According to the heat index, temperatures like those experienced in various Southeast Asian countries are classified as 'Danger/ Extreme Danger' and are considered life-threatening. As a result, over 600 million people already face these risks daily in the summer.

By 2050, we must ensure that 100% of homes at risk of extreme heat waves have access to AC, not as a luxury but as a necessity. Our case study examines two regions in India and Myanmar, which generally share similar backgrounds with lower AC penetration rates and varied housing types between urban and rural areas:

• New Delhi, India: New Delhi has a total population of about 33.8 million people, with around 13% living in slums. Although 99% of homes in New Delhi are electrified, electricity is often limited to essential household use or street lighting in rural or slum areas. As of last year, AC penetration in India was around 8-10% and is expected to reach 50% by 2037.

• Kachin, Myanmar: Kachin, the northernmost state of Myanmar, is home to about 1.8 million residents, with 64% living in rural areas, in addition to 90,000 displaced individuals in IDP camps. The Myanmar National Electrification Project aims for 100% electricity access by 2030, but currently only 15% of Kachin's population has electricity. AC penetration is much lower, with 9% in urban areas and only 1.5% in rural areas.

By using cooling load calculations, which consider factors like building material types, heat gain, and size, we can estimate the additional power required in a region for AC alone. If every home in New Delhi, India, and Kachin, Myanmar, had access to AC, how much additional capacity would their grids need?

With benchmark goals aiming for 50% AC penetration by 2037 and 100% by 2050, both India and Myanmar will require immense generation capacity, equivalent to solar and nuclear plants, to meet those targets. Additionally, the types of housing materials will play a critical role in determining the range of expected load.

Most homes in rural and slum regions of India and Myanmar are constructed with bamboo or wooden walls and corrugated metal sheet roofs. These homes lack thermal efficiency, requiring nearly double the power to cool compared to urban concrete apartments, even if electrified. Ensuring access to AC is a basic necessity for all; these homes are currently considered "unlivable" in extreme heat due to limited energy infrastructure.

• Nuclear plant equivalent - India. In addition to upgrading urban and rural homes, it is crucial to include the transition of homes in slum regions. The New Delhi government reported that 4.8 million homes throughout the city would need to be built or upgraded by 2022 to guarantee housing for all. If the entire slum population additionally transitions to average concrete apartments by 2050, Delhi will need four additional nuclear plants with a capacity of 1.5 GW each by 2050 for ACs alone.

• Solar plant equivalent - Myanmar. On the other hand, most rural households in Kachin are not electrified and currently live in less efficient homes made of brick, wood, and huts. The government has an opportunity to provide accessible homes built with high insulation and energy standards, which would help utilities save on costly generation and distribution investments and substantially reduce overall energy expenses for the community. Kachin will need six additional solar plants with a capacity of 35 MW each by 2050 to meet AC demand alone.

Governments worldwide must prioritize the health and safety of their citizens from excessive heat. As energy infrastructure is redesigned to meet additional demands, nations face a critical decision: more power versus upgraded developments. Building more utility plants may not be the only solution to reducing grid load, as investments in built infrastructure could yield higher returns in the long run. Both India and Myanmar exemplify the inevitable need for AC adoption and the importance of incorporating AC load growth in future planning.

However, there are many regulatory, implementation, and financial hurdles, especially for low-income residents. Governments need to establish supportive infrastructure to ensure that people can afford and access ACs as a basic necessity, thereby improving livelihoods. As we light the torch to mark the beginning of the Summer Olympics and the world warms up for the international games, nations worldwide are feeling the heat.