FEATURES AND MODULES

Policy_Layer #Features. Policy plays a crucial role in shaping the SAF market, directly affecting both supply and demand. Analyzing SAF targets specifically highlights the growing demand: currently, only Norway has a blending target (0.5% set in 2020), but by 2030, over 30 countries will require blending mandates, ranging from 3% in South Korea to 30% in Norway. By 2050, the EU has set an ambitious goal of 70% SAF. Additionally, eight other countries have SAF programs or proposed policies for future blending requirements.

How does this apply to you? Navigating international policies is challenging due to diverse timelines and blending requirements. Instead of manually reviewing each SAF regulation, ACTUAL provides SAF investors with a comprehensive view of the regulatory landscape, helping them identify priority areas essential for competitive positioning today in order to build a successful, long-term transition plan.

While increasing the global supply of SAF is crucial, establishing regional supply chains is equally important. Producing and refining feedstock near where it will be used creates a more cost-effective, resilient, and sustainable network. For instance, there are currently five operating SAF facilities supplying approximately 610 million gallons of SAF annually across the U.S. This setup presents two key challenges: the dispersed supply chain introduces logistical issues, and the combined output from these facilities still falls short of meeting demand.

Zoom_In_Optimizer #Features. When analyzing a plot of farmland—here, we will refer to it as Tall Stalks Farm—several factors must be considered to assess the land suitability for growing the raw materials needed for feedstock. Soil characteristics, such as pH levels and drainage type class, play a pivotal role in determining the maximum crop yield potential. For example, switchgrass, which thrives in moderately well-drained soil, will not achieve maximum yield if the soil is even slightly too wet or dry. To cultivate maximum potential, crops must be grown in an environment that closely matches its ideal conditions. 

At Tall Stalks Farm, as on most farmland, soil characteristics vary considerably acre by acre. The land is classified as “Cropland” or “Non-Arable Land,” factoring in topography suitable for best farming practices and areas with native vegetation to support tree growth. As the farm plans to grow crops for the SAF feedstock network, like switchgrass or corn rotated with soybeans, our AI model identifies ideal locations for each crop based on soil and topographical factors. The model can also be enhanced by incorporating climate variables—temperature, rainfall, and projected impacts of climate change—to further optimize crop placement and strategic long-term planning.

How does this apply to you? Corn and soy, the primary sources of traditional feedstock, come with constraints: they demand significant resources and have high financial and carbon costs. As a result, SAF investors can achieve better financial returns by focusing on high-yield areas and exploring alternative crops that align with the land's characteristics. Our AI optimizer accelerates site selection, confidently matching the best crop to the best location. While farmers know their land best, our science-based models uncover potential opportunities within the SAF feedstock network.

Capital_Planning #Features. Corn, an annual crop, requires rotational planting with soy and no-till practices to qualify for SAF tax incentives, leading to high labor (OPEX) and annual replanting costs (CAPEX). In contrast, switchgrass, a perennial with a ten-year lifespan, may provide a more sustainable, cost-effective option on suitable land. Thus, crop selection significantly affects both capital and operational expenses, impacting the overall balance sheet.

At Tall Stalks Farm, ACTUAL’s optimizer identifies optimal sites based on financial expenditures and clusters the most suitable crops for each region, combining science and practicality. Crop yield is a key factor driving high IRR and net revenue, again underscoring the importance of physical land suitability. Although switchgrass sells for a lower average price per ton ($110) compared to corn and soy ($285), it yields more tons per acre and incurs substantially lower operating costs, making it a cost-effective option.

How does this apply to you? This feature integrates the science layer with financial planning, as they are interdependent, rather than independent, of each other. By overlaying these components, SAF investors can quantify risks and profitability before starting projects. Additionally, viewing the cash flow projections for both crops at Tall Stalks Farm enables decision-makers to identify potential cost-saving areas and make informed investment decisions confidently.

Other factors to consider include the influence of policy and demand for flights to nearby airports. Flight routes reveal the types and volumes of feedstock required to meet demand. For instance, smaller hubs like Des Moines International in Iowa, with primarily domestic and indirect international flights, may find corn and soy to be viable feedstocks. However, airports like Chicago O’Hare require much larger volumes, which may necessitate securing higher feedstock supplies or expanding supplier networks. 

Additionally, as the UK phases out crop-based fuel derived from corn and soy, SAF producers will need to explore alternatives like switchgrass, which yields more biofuel per ton. While traditional feedstock remains essential, a green aviation transition will require flights to meet the strictest sustainability standards.

Supply_Chain #Module. At every stage of the supply chain, understanding both supply and demand is essential, along with recognizing market needs and regulatory pressures that influence costs and competitive advantages. How does this affect you?

• Biorefineries need to establish locations near jet fuel pipelines to integrate with existing infrastructure, enabling efficient SAF delivery to major international hubs and local airports to reduce reliance on long-haul trucking. 

• SAF feedstock investors need to invest in advanced technologies like alcohol-to-jet and Fischer-Tropsch, which utilize alternative feedstock options and enhance the scalability and resilience of SAF production.

• Feedstock vendors need to partner with local suppliers to secure a diverse feedstock supply, diversifying beyond traditional sources like corn and soy-based cooking oil.

• SAF production vendors need to assess market demands at nearby airports, taking into account factors like domestic and international flight patterns, as some international mandates plan to phase out crop-based fuels.

In addition to blending requirements, many countries have introduced tax incentives for SAF buyers and producers across the supply chain. Given the complexity and scale of the SAF market, this edition focuses on raw material procurement: without feedstock, there is no SAF. Direct investments in farms boost feedstock supply, directly decarbonizing the supply chain and delivering strong financial returns and higher IRRs—a vital step toward moving SAF from runway to takeoff.